Comparison of Legislative Climate Change Targets in the 110th Congress

The World Resources Institute’s analysis of emissions targets and cumulative emissions budgets attempts to objectively, fairly and accurately compare GHG reductions from explicit carbon caps and complementary policies contained in climate proposals submitted in the 110th Congress. Emissions from capped sectors are calculated based on the text of the respective legislation. For sectors that are not covered by the legislation, emissions are estimated to continue uncontrolled in line with projections published by EPA. This analysis uses a single set of carefully selected data and methods to provide a consistent comparison across all climate proposals in the 110th Congress. This analysis is not a projection of actual future emissions under the various proposals nor is it an analysis of economic impacts resulting from the enactment of these policies.

“Comparison of Legislative Climate Change Targets in the 110th Congress” (Figure 1) compares targets for legislative proposals of mandatory cap and trade programs for greenhouse gas emissions. Specifically, each line reflects the mandatory caps plus the growth in uncovered emissions as well as a range of additional possible reductions that could occur through complementary policies. Appendix 1 contains a table that includes the underlying data and estimates of emission reductions for selected years. This chart is a revision of a similar analysis by World Resources Institute released during the 109th Congress and subsequently updated through June 4, 2008.

This update includes the following:

• A preliminary analysis of HR.6186, the Investing in Climate Action and Protection Act sponsored by Representative Markey. In addition to estimates of GHG reductions under the proposed cap and trade program and auction revenue funding for GHG reductions in uncapped sectors, this analysis incorporates GHG reduction estimates from additional regulations on certain uncapped sources.
• A table presenting historical emissions data and estimates of capped plus uncovered emissions and emissions reductions under each legislative proposal for selected future years.
• Estimates of emissions coverage under S.2191 and S.3036 have been revised upwards by less than 1 percent, reflecting an attempt to harmonize WRI’s emissions coverage methodology with those employed previously by EPA.

Chart 1: Legislative Climate Change Targets in the 110th Congress

Click the chart for a high-resolution version

Chart 2: Cumulative Emissions Budgets under Legislative Climate Change Targets in the 110th Congress

Click the chart for a high-resolution version

“Comparison of Cumulative Emissions Budgets under Legislative Climate Change Targets in the 110th Congress” (Figure 2) offers a different perspective on the same data. This figure depicts the cumulative greenhouse gas emissions budgets for the proposals over two time periods. While the speed with which emissions reductions are implemented is an important determinant of the efficacy of climate change legislation, cumulative emissions reductions are also an essential indicator of the overall environmental stringency of a policy proposal. Time periods of 2010-2030 and 2010-2050 were chosen to evaluate how ambitious the proposals are in both the short and long term. In addition, for the Boxer-Lieberman-Warner, Bingaman-Specter and Markey proposals, optimistic and conservative scenarios are presented to account for changes in U.S. emissions that may result from conditional targets and complementary policies included in these bills. These estimates do not include changes to the targets or annual emissions levels that may result from the use of cost-containment provisions included in some proposals.

Related Links

• WRI/NRDC joint analysis of the Warner-Lieberman climate proposal (S. 2191)
• WRI’s Response to the EPA’s Analysis of Federal Climate Change Legislative Proposals.