The environment and China

Source: 1998. World Resources 1998-99: Environmental change and human health. A joint publication by the World Resources Institute, the United Nationas Environment Programme, the United Nations Development Programme, and The World Bank.

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Among the scheduled topics for discussion this week in meetings between Vice President Gore and China's Premier Zhu Rongji is cooperation on the environment, clean energy and sustainability. Undoubtedly, this is a significant opportunity for both countries to affirm that these issues are national and global priorities. Such an affirmation would please environmentalists and others who for years have been seeking a coordinated global strategy for addressing climate change and other environmental concerns.

This is not incidental: China and the United States are the two largest energy users in the world and the two largest emitters of carbon dioxide, the most prevalent greenhouse gas. Further, China is in the midst of unprecedented economic expansion, with a growth rate of 10 percent a year over the past ten years -- as much growth in one decade as the industrial world experienced in nearly a century.

WRI's recent research in the areas of climate, health and energy use in China has shown that the results of such massive and rapid development have so far come at a high cost to China's natural environment and public health. The question is whether China can begin to follow a different course -- with benefits to her own citizens and the world -- which presents an extraordinary challenge for environmental policy. Decisions Chinese government and business leaders make in the next three decades about energy and transportation will shape the local and the global environment.

WRI's team of experts, at the request of both the Chinese and U.S. governments, have been involved on the ground in evaluating, analyzing, and in developing solutions to what are some of the foremost environmental problems of our time. These researchers will be available for interviews by journalists, or to provide background for the potentially historic meetings. This includes WRI's President Jonathan Lash, who is a member of the China Council and co-chair of the President's Council on Sustainable Development, and experts in the areas of climate, energy, health and transportation.

Our research, for instance, shows that under international agreements that address climate change, the approaches of the two countries to development and the environment must be treated differently. Indeed, the U.S. and other industrialized countries have primarily been responsible for the increase in atmospheric concentrations in CO2 and other greenhouse gases:

• Over the past 100 years, the U.S., and other highly industrialized countries, have contributed 65 percent of the concentrations of CO2 above the pre-industrial baseline.

• Even though China's population is three-and-a-half times larger than that of the United States, the U.S. has contributed four-and-a-half times more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere this century.

• On a per capita basis, Americans emit 7.5 times more CO2 than the average Chinese.

• And, most significantly, a recent report on the Chinese electric power sector by Battelle Memorial Institute and two Chinese research centers estimates that since the late-1970s China's economy grew twice as fast as its energy consumption. China would be emitting twice as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere if not for an unprecedented "de-coupling" of carbon emissions and economic growth.

But despite dramatic improvements in energy efficiency, China is still contending with some of the most serious environmental threats in the world. These include:

• Over half the population (nearly 700 million people) lacks access to clean water, and consumes drinking water contaminated with animal and human waste that exceeds the applicable maximum permissible levels. Overall only 5 percent of household waste and about 17 percent of industrial waste receive any treatment before entering local irrigation ditches, ponds, lakes, and streams.

• All of China's bodies of water are polluted to various degrees. Serious pollution has been documented in the country's seven major watersheds: Huai, Hai, Liao, Songhua, Chang (Yangtze), Zhu (Pearl) and Huang (Yellow).

• China faces severe deforestation problems, which contributed to the devastating floods during the summer of 1998.

• Air pollution in some Chinese cities is among the highest ever recorded, averaging more than ten times the standard proposed by the World Health Organization.

• Air pollution threatens public health and welfare on a large scale. China's six largest cities - Beijing, Shenyang, Chongqing, Shanghai, Xian, and Guangzhou - rank among the most polluted in the world.

• In Beijing, 40 percent of autos surveyed -- and 70 percent of taxis -- failed to meet the most basic emission standards.

The Environment and China

Emulating the United States, China's urban transportation policy is focused primarily on the use of motor vehicles. Over-reliance on oil-powered vehicles will almost certainly exacerbate China's long-term problems stemming from air pollution, global climate change, risks to China's national security, and traffic congestion.

China's high economic growth highlights the potential conflicts between rapid industrialization and environmental protection. Nowhere is the potential conflict between development and the environment more apparent than in transportation. In its long-range planning to modernize, China has placed a heavy emphasis on motor vehicles as the basis for transportation planning.

• In 1996, China produced 1.4 million vehicles. By 2000, production is expected to reach 2.7 million and by 2010, six million.

• Registered motor vehicles in China (excluding scooters) are expected to reach 44 to 50 million by the year 2010. China's long-term goal is to have every household own a car.

• Growth in recent years in the use of motor vehicles in China has been dramatic. In the six years between 1987 and 1993, the stock of civilian motor vehicles (trucks, passenger vehicles, motorcycles, and tractors) increased by about 12% per year.

• In Beijing alone, the number of vehicles is growing by 15% per year. The total number of motor vehicles reached about 28 million in 1995. Though large in absolute terms, on a per capita basis China's motor vehicle fleet is not so big. Per capita registrations in China are only 3% of those in the U.S.

• The structure of the Chinese vehicle fleet differs from that of the industrialized countries in that only 12% or so of the vehicles are passenger vehicles. In contrast, motorcycles represent a third of China's vehicle fleet.

The potential adverse impacts of a transport system based primarily on oil-powered motor vehicles are several fold and include deterioration in urban air quality with its associated medical and economic costs; increased emissions of greenhouse gases, including CO2; increased risks to China's oil and economic security from rapidly growing oil imports from unstable regions; and traffic congestion and its resulting costs to the Chinese economy through lost time, excess fuel use, medical costs, and excessive wear on vehicles.

Transportation and Air Pollution

Air pollution is a major problem in China and threatens public health and welfare on a large scale. Pollutants include carbon monoxide (CO), about 85 percent of which comes from motor vehicles; volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), the precursors to smog and ozone, also mainly from vehicles; and particulate matter. National NO2 air quality standards are currently exceeded across large areas including these where traffic is heavy. Similarly, carbon monoxide standards are generally exceeded in high traffic areas exposing pedestrians, bicyclists, and others to potentially high levels of CO. Although the data are sparse, it appears that the national standards for particulates are exceeded in many Chinese cities, partly from emissions from motor vehicles. In addition to the risks they impose from smog formation, nitrogen oxides contribute to acid deposition and the excess fertilization (eutrophication) of aquatic systems.

• Motor vehicles are an important cause of these pollution emissions. In Beijing, 40% of autos surveyed -- and 70% of taxis -- failed to meet the most basic emission standards.

• In Shanghai, emissions of 100,000 motor vehicles and 300,000 motor bikes were above the national permitted level.

Transportation and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions

Motor vehicles are also important contributors to the problem of global warming. Through a variety of industrial and agricultural activities -- such as fossil fuel burning -- humankind is adding gases to the atmosphere that are enhancing the earth's natural greenhouse effect. These added gases are expected to lead to long-term and possibly irreversible changes in the planet's climate.

Virtually all nations in the world, including China, have signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, acknowledging the seriousness of the global warming problem and committing the signatories to long-term actions to reduce GHG emissions.

• Worldwide, motor vehicles are sources of all the important gases contributing to global warming and account for between 15 and 20% of energy-related CO2 emissions. Like all fossil fuels, gasoline and diesel fuel emit carbon dioxide when they are burned, about 5.1 pounds of carbon per gallon of gasoline.

• As a result, China's CO2 emissions are likely to increase in parallel with growth in its fleet of oil-powered motor vehicles. Policies to encourage oil-powered vehicle use -- in China or anywhere else -- can only exacerbate the problems of controlling emissions related to global warming.

China's Oil Security

China is a major producer of oil, accounting for almost 5% of world production. However, its rapid growth in oil consumption -- averaging 8% per year between 1991 and 1996 -- has outstripped domestic production and China has been a net oil importer since 1994. (By 1997, imports accounted for 20% of China's supply.) Increased imports are expected with the continued growth in motor vehicle use.

• By the year 2000, imports are expected to reach one million barrels per day and by 2010, three million barrels per day. Increased oil imports could pose significant risks to China's national and economic security.

• Inevitably, more of China's oil will come from the unstable Persian Gulf. Recognizing this, China has been aggressively pursuing joint arrangements for oil exploration and production in 23 countries around the world including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Venezuela, and the former Soviet republic of Kazakhstan.

• China is the 6th largest oil producer but has only 2.3% of global proved reserves. Despite its current high production levels, China -- like the United States -- does not have the huge resources needed to sustain its current production levels for any long period of time. As a result, the long-term outlook for China's oil production is not bright.

• According to the U.S. Geological Survey -- which in turn relied heavily on reports of Chinese geologists -- China's ultimately recoverable oil resources are estimated to be between 55 and 128 billion (109) barrels. Using the higher estimate, a preliminary -- and conservative -- estimate can be made of when China's conventional oil production might start declining: it is about the year 2015. In other words, from a long-term perspective, China's oil resources are limited and a peaking in production and subsequent decline can be anticipated in less than 20 years if rapid growth in production takes place as expected.

These trends have profound implications for China and its movement to build a vast motor-vehicle industry and associated infrastructure based on present-day petroleum technology. In the coming years, as China's need for oil grows, especially for transportation, it will have to import more and more of its supply, with a consequent burden in its balance of payments. Moreover, as world oil production gradually shifts, as it inevitably will, to the Middle East, the risks of supply disruption from political turmoil will grow, another factor to consider in China's long-range transportation planning. These economic, resource, and security considerations need to be carefully evaluated if China decides to move ahead to build a vast motor vehicle industry and infrastructure based on petroleum.

NOTE: The World Resources Institute is undertaking a study with Chinese researchers and municipal officials to develop a sustainable transportation strategy for Dalian, a major Chinese city.

The Environment and China Water and Air Pollution:Water and Health

The twin problems of water scarcity and pollution in China are a major issue. Not only are they threatening human health and development, but water problems also jeopardize China's economic plans. Water shortages in cities cause a loss of an estimated U.S. $11.2 billion (120 billion yuan) in industrial output, while the impact of water pollution on human health has been valued at approximately U.S. $3.9 billion (41.73 billion yuan per year) by Chinese sources. Future economic development could be seriously jeopardized by water shortages. The lack of resources and advanced technology are partially responsible for the slow progress in solving these problems.

China faces a triple threat from water pollution. In some places, there are extreme water shortages (China has about the same amount of water as Canada, with a population 100 times greater). In much of the country, the water is heavily polluted (exceeding national standards). And in still other areas, flooding regularly surges out of control, wreaking havoc with crops and homes.

Water Availability

• China ranks fourth in the world in terms of total water resources, but is second lowest in terms of per capita water resource availability.

• Nearly half of China's 640 major cities face water shortages; 100 face severe shortages.

• By the year 2000, the annual shortage is expected to reach 29 billion cubic meters. Shortages will peak in 2020 when shortages of 50 billion cubic meters are expected.

• Some regions have far less water than the national average -- Northern China has only one-fifth the per capita water resources of southern China and just 10% of the world average.

• Aggravating the problem is low efficiency -- the current end-use efficiency of fresh water is estimated at around 10%.

• Nearly 80% of China's water is used for agriculture, but almost half of this total either evaporates or leaks.

• Unable to use surface water in much of the country, groundwater is being depleted at a staggering rate. For example, in Shanghai and Beijing, groundwater levels have been dropping several feet per year.

Water Pollution

• All of China's water bodies are polluted to various degrees of severity. Serious pollution has been documented in the country's seven major watersheds: Huai, Hai, Liao, Songhua, Chang (Yangtze), Zhu (Pearl) and Huang (Yellow).

• Sources of water pollution include, not only traditional pollutants (excreta) but also modern toxic pollutants -- this is peculiar to rapidly industrializing developing countries. Both municipal and industrial wastewater is inadequately treated -- only 5% of household waste and 17% of industrial waste received any treatment as of 1996, according to the UNDP and Chinese authorities.

Health Impacts of Water Pollution

• Half of China's population (nearly 700 million people) consumes drinking water contaminated with animal and human waste that exceeds the applicable maximum permissible levels, and while there has been an overall decline in mortality from infectious diseases, diarrheal diseases and viral hepatitis, both associated with fecal pollution of water, are the leading infectious diseases in China.

• Liver and stomach cancers in China are caused in part by water pollution. China has the highest liver and stomach cancer death rates in the world. Liver and stomach cancers are 3-7 times higher in polluted rural areas of China (such as Shanxi province or the Shenfu irrigation area near Shenyang in Liaoning Province) compared to cleaner areas.

• Recent scientific reports reveal that rates of liver cancer and birth defects are 4 to 8 times higher in districts using polluted water than in cleaner regions.

Air Pollution and Health

• Respiratory disease is the number one cause of death in China.

• In some regions (such as major industrial zones in Xuan Wei county and Hebei province) , rates of chronic lung disease are at least five times higher than the rest of the country. Women in those areas who do not smoke cigarettes, have the highest rates of lung cancer ever recorded anywhere in the world of women who do not smoke.

• China's six largest cities -- Beijing, Shenyang, Chongqing, Shanghai, Xian, and Guangzhou -- rank among the most polluted cities in the world.

• The government has begun the radical act of publishing information on air pollution in local newspapers, in part to galvanize public support for closing down inefficient and polluting industries.

• In the past year, the government has closed more than 70,000 polluting industries, and other unproductive highly polluting firms are said to be targeted for phase-out.

The Environment and China: Climate Change

Although China and the United States are the world's two largest emitters of greenhouse gas emissions, they must be treated differently under international agreements that address climate change. Even though China's population is three-and-a-half times larger than that of the United States, the U.S. has contributed four-and-a-half times more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere this century. On a per capita basis, Americans emit 7.5 times more CO2 than the average Chinese.

• Over the past 20 years, China has taken concrete steps to conserve energy and reduce emissions growth while simultaneously raising standards of living. Without price reforms and energy efficiency gains, China's emissions would be more than 50% higher than current levels. Per dollar of GDP, China has cut its carbon emission levels in half since 1980. This is an unprecedented "de-coupling" of carbon emissions and economic growth, relative to any other country.

• Despite dramatic improvements in energy efficiency, China remains one of the most carbon- and energy-intensive economies in the world, relying on coal (the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel) for 75% of its commercial energy consumption. China's own studies indicate a potential to further reduce industrial energy use by 40-50%. Switching from coal to natural gas would also dramatically lower carbon dioxide emissions and improve air quality.

• Since 1988, electricity generating capacity has increased by 10,000 megawatts (MW) per year, reaching an installed capacity of over 200,000 MW. Government plans indicate ambitious future expansions of 15,000 MW per year to meet excess demand for electricity. Seventy-five percent of electric power in China is generated by fossil fuels, mainly coal.

• Industrial boilers, which account for one-third of China's coal use, offer opportunities to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants. The average boiler efficiency in China is only 55-65%, compared with 80-85% for systems using more current technologies. Thermal efficiencies of Chinese coal-fired power plants are also relatively low, at 29-32%, compared to current technologies that deliver 40% (for coal) to over 50% (for natural gas combined cycle) efficiencies.

• Increasing the efficiencies of boilers and power plants is a target for multilateral financial assistance (through the World Bank and Global Environment Facility) and a potential target for the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism, designed to promote the transfer of cutting-edge technologies that lower greenhouse gas emissions to developing countries.

• China has large renewable energy resources. Most significantly, installed wind power capacity is 240 MW and rising rapidly.

• Both China and the U.S. have signed the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, though neither country has ratified the Protocol. Both countries are Parties to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

• China faces severe deforestation problems, which contributed to the devastating floods during the summer of 1998.