The Climate of a Post-Kyoto World

by Peter Denton

While signatory nations and environmentalists hail the recent ratification of the international Kyoto Protocol on global warming, many are now looking forward and assessing the next steps necessary to further combat and curtail climate change.

"Kyoto coming into force is a positive step," said Jonathan Pershing, director of the Climate and Energy Program at World Resources Institute (WRI) and a former key U.S. negotiator for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol. "It makes clear that the world takes the global warming problem seriously, and establishes a framework for addressing it."

Global warming is caused by the release of heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere. These greenhouse gases (GHGs) are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which reviews scientific research and advises governments on the issue, the average temperature of the Earth has risen by 0.6 degrees C since the late 1800s and is expected to increase by another 1.4 to 5.8 degrees C by the year 2100.

Scientists say that the effects of even the minimum increase would be catastrophic. Plant and animal extinctions, mass human migrations from low-lying areas, extreme weather events, dropping agricultural yields, and the expansion of contractible diseases are merely a few of the disastrous effects tied to global warming.

The Kyoto Protocol, an outgrowth of the UNFCCC, was agreed to by a wide range of nations in 1997. Ratified by 141 nations, the landmark treaty committed industrialized nations to limit or reduce their GHG emissions to below 1990 levels. The treaty came into force on February 16, with official ratification by Russia. The U.S. is not a signatory to this treaty.

While the treaty marks an enormous first step in the effort to curb climate change, many experts are concerned about the future of the complex international negotiations. At a recent seminar at Brookings Institute in Washington, DC, a variety of speakers with intimate experience in the process described the difficulties that lie ahead.

"Like Washington's cicadas [insects that emerge from their burrows in the soil every 17 years], Kyoto took years to hatch, received enormous attention, and may, as things stand today, be short-lived," said Nigel Purvis, a Brookings scholar on environment, development and global issues. Restrictions on GHG emissions set by the Kyoto Protocol are due to be lifted in 2012, and reluctance on behalf of the signatory nations to extend the emissions reductions targets is forcing those dedicated to the stemming global warming to look elsewhere.

Senator John F. Kerry (D-MA), the most recent Democratic nominee for President, spoke at the seminar and relayed his fears regarding the future of climate change policy. "The diplomatic issue is no longer Kyoto yes-or-no," said Sen. Kerry. "The world understands that we actually need to move beyond Kyoto. Kyoto is limited in time and participation, and it may well be limited in its success." He said that it should be viewed as a foundation of global principles for cooperation, with principles of binding targets and emissions trading that can serve as a blueprint.

"A number of proposals have been put on the international table, from a G-8 program to promote renewable energy and technology funding to development aid to the UNFCCC," Sen. Kerry said. "But what we need now is leadership that engages the developing world. No climate change program can work without the less-developed nations being part of it."

While the Kyoto Protocol exempted developing nations from hard caps on GHG emissions, Sen. Kerry and others in attendance at the seminar emphasized the importance of including developing nations in future climate negotiations.

"There seems to be a growing sense that the post-2012 GHG regime will only be effective if it includes the top 20 or so emitters, who collectively cover 75 percent of the world's emissions," said Andrew Aulisi, a WRI expert who attended the Brookings seminar. "Other countries, while often severely impacted by climate change, tend to negotiate more from parochial interests, and have less to contribute in reducing the emissions that lead to climate change."

It is clear that while the Kyoto Protocol represents great progress in the battle against global warming, strategies and processes will need to be reevaluated and enhanced for the next round of international climate policy negotiations. (WRI Features, 708 words)