WRI Features
A monthly features service on environment and development issues.

• The Climate of a Post-Kyoto World. While the recent ratification of the Kyoto Protocol represents great progress in the battle against global warming, strategies and processes will need to be reevaluated and enhanced for the next round of international climate policy negotiations.
• New Development Model Spurs Growth in South African Rural Community. South Africa's Makuleke Rural Community has used innovative development strategies to electrify their village and create an environmentally-friendly lodge.
• Commentary: Catching Up in a Globally Warmed World. A collaborative effort between U.S. states to cut air pollution may point the way forward in the effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and curb climate change.

The Climate of a Post-Kyoto World

by Peter Denton

While signatory nations and environmentalists hail the recent ratification of the international Kyoto Protocol on global warming, many are now looking forward and assessing the next steps necessary to further combat and curtail climate change.

"Kyoto coming into force is a positive step," said Jonathan Pershing, director of the Climate and Energy Program at World Resources Institute (WRI) and a former key U.S. negotiator for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol. "It makes clear that the world takes the global warming problem seriously, and establishes a framework for addressing it."

Global warming is caused by the release of heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere. These greenhouse gases (GHGs) are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which reviews scientific research and advises governments on the issue, the average temperature of the Earth has risen by 0.6 degrees C since the late 1800s and is expected to increase by another 1.4 to 5.8 degrees C by the year 2100.

Scientists say that the effects of even the minimum increase would be catastrophic. Plant and animal extinctions, mass human migrations from low-lying areas, extreme weather events, dropping agricultural yields, and the expansion of contractible diseases are merely a few of the disastrous effects tied to global warming.

The Kyoto Protocol, an outgrowth of the UNFCCC, was agreed to by a wide range of nations in 1997. Ratified by 141 nations, the landmark treaty committed industrialized nations to limit or reduce their GHG emissions to below 1990 levels. The treaty came into force on February 16, with official ratification by Russia. The U.S. is not a signatory to this treaty.

While the treaty marks an enormous first step in the effort to curb climate change, many experts are concerned about the future of the complex international negotiations. At a recent seminar at Brookings Institute in Washington, DC, a variety of speakers with intimate experience in the process described the difficulties that lie ahead.

"Like Washington's cicadas [insects that emerge from their burrows in the soil every 17 years], Kyoto took years to hatch, received enormous attention, and may, as things stand today, be short-lived," said Nigel Purvis, a Brookings scholar on environment, development and global issues. Restrictions on GHG emissions set by the Kyoto Protocol are due to be lifted in 2012, and reluctance on behalf of the signatory nations to extend the emissions reductions targets is forcing those dedicated to the stemming global warming to look elsewhere.

Senator John F. Kerry (D-MA), the most recent Democratic nominee for President, spoke at the seminar and relayed his fears regarding the future of climate change policy. "The diplomatic issue is no longer Kyoto yes-or-no," said Sen. Kerry. "The world understands that we actually need to move beyond Kyoto. Kyoto is limited in time and participation, and it may well be limited in its success." He said that it should be viewed as a foundation of global principles for cooperation, with principles of binding targets and emissions trading that can serve as a blueprint.

"A number of proposals have been put on the international table, from a G-8 program to promote renewable energy and technology funding to development aid to the UNFCCC," Sen. Kerry said. "But what we need now is leadership that engages the developing world. No climate change program can work without the less-developed nations being part of it."

While the Kyoto Protocol exempted developing nations from hard caps on GHG emissions, Sen. Kerry and others in attendance at the seminar emphasized the importance of including developing nations in future climate negotiations.

"There seems to be a growing sense that the post-2012 GHG regime will only be effective if it includes the top 20 or so emitters, who collectively cover 75 percent of the world's emissions," said Andrew Aulisi, a WRI expert who attended the Brookings seminar. "Other countries, while often severely impacted by climate change, tend to negotiate more from parochial interests, and have less to contribute in reducing the emissions that lead to climate change."

It is clear that while the Kyoto Protocol represents great progress in the battle against global warming, strategies and processes will need to be reevaluated and enhanced for the next round of international climate policy negotiations. (WRI Features, 708 words)

New Development Model Spurs Growth in South African Rural Community

by Emmanuel Koro

Most rural African communities know about their governments' development plans in their areas, but are helpless if their government delays in implementing them. South Africa's Makuleke Rural Community, however, has proactively used the knowledge of future development plans in their area to push the government to follow up on their promises.

Makuleke, with a population of approximately 12,000, was forcibly removed from Kruger National Park in 1969 by South Africa's apartheid regime to make way for expansion of the park. About two years ago, South Africa paid the Makuleke Community US$450,000 as compensation for their removal.

Lamson Maluleke, a resident from the area, said that the South African government had initially intended to electrify the community by 2008. But in a rare and groundbreaking move, the Makuleke Community proposed that the South African government use the compensation money to electrify its villages immediately.

In exchange, the Makuleke people would receive the $450,000 compensation funds, with interest, when the government had originally decided to electrify the villages. The Makuleke villages were electrified in September 2004, and Lamson Maluleke expects the government to pay back the compensation funds before the end of 2005, to avoid hefty interest charges.

"We welcome the electrification of the villages in Makuleke Community as this will allow students to read late in the night, bringing an opportunity for children from the community to perform better at school," said Humphrey Makuleke, son of chief Makuleke. Humphrey is currently studying law at The University of Venda in South Africa.

"The electricity is used for lighting only," said Ellen Manganyi, a Makuleke resident. "Pre-paid monthly electricity bills range from US$17 upwards. Prepaying for electricity that one needs per month is good because one is not left with huge bill that he or she will not be able to pay."

"The Makuleke Community is the only rural community I knew of throughout the whole of South Africa with lights in the streets," said Lamson Maluleke. "Most rural communities have lights in the home only."

The Makuleke Community shares its borders with Mozambique and Zimbabwe and is working with communities from these countries to conserve wildlife and other related natural resources in the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Park - which includes South Africa's Kruger National Park, Mozambique's Limpopo National Park and Zimbabwe's Gonarezhou National park.

In addition to being compensated for their forcible removal from the Kruger National Park in 1969, the Makuleke people also successfully reclaimed their 25,000 hectare (61,775 acre) piece of land. The Makuleke people could have resettled inside Kruger National Park and engaged in their traditional agricultural practices, which could have resulted in destruction of wildlife. Instead, the Makuleke decided to run a park-friendly lodge business on their reclaimed land, working together with a group of hotels called The Mix. The lodge is currently owned by The Mix but is largely run by Makuleke residents and will be handed over to the Makuleke Community in 28 years. This tourism venture has been running for the past four years and the Community is paid 10 percent of the revenue generated every three months.

Lamson Maluleke also works for the board that represents the interests of Kruger National Park and the Makuleke Community. The board aims to create a harmonious and productive conservation and development relationship between the park and the community.

Maluleke said that the Makuleke Community has used income generated from the Lodge to build the Community's multipurpose centre, which was built in the heart of the village for tourists wishing to experience the Makuleke way of life. The multipurpose center includes a bed and breakfast facility, crafts production unit and an amphitheater.

The community has created an excellent development model that more rural communities from South Africa and other parts of the world can use to speed progress in their area. The Makuleke people are already discussing another development project to commence this year, as soon as the government pays back the US$450,000 compensation fund. (WRI Features, 669 words)

Commentary: Catching Up in a Globally Warmed World

by Andrew Aulisi and Jonathan Pershing

With the recent ratification of the Kyoto Protocol on global warming, all eyes have focused on the United States - the most prominent holdout in the global effort to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While U.S. proposals for federal regulatory or market-based action continue to languish, a collaborative effort by U.S. state governments to cut air pollution may point to a new front in the crucial battle to stop global warming.

In 1999, nine U.S. states and the District of Columbia banded together to create a regional market for permits to emit nitrogen oxides (NOx), a pernicious air pollutant that contributes to smog and acid rain. Through a regional Ozone Transport Commission (OTC), the states launched the "OTC NOx Budget Program," which proved to be remarkably successful at reducing regional emissions of NOx.

In similar fashion, a number of U.S. states are now shifting focus and leading the way on climate change by considering market-based policies to reduce GHG emissions. We believe that the success achieved with the state-led NOx trading program increases the likelihood of states demonstrating to the federal government the potential for application of GHG controls, as explained in our new report released by the World Resources Institute, Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading in U.S. States: Observations and Lessons from the OTC NOx Budget Program.

The pattern of regional cooperation demonstrated in both the OTC market and the new, emerging GHG market continues a historical trend in which states serve as the dominant source of innovation and leadership. The federal government then picks up successful programs and extends them at a national scale.

In the case of NOx emissions, a "cap-and-trade" system was used to define the total amount of NOx pollution that regulated sources could emit over time, with a long-term goal of decreasing emissions. Under the scheme, regulated firms had the option of reducing emissions or buying permits, called "allowances," from other firms.

Companies with higher costs saved money by buying allowances from firms with lower costs, and the firms with lower costs made money by reducing NOx emissions and selling their excess allowances. The overall cap on emissions ensured the environmental credibility of the regime.

Under the OTC NOx Budget Program, annual emissions from 1999-2002 were significantly reduced and consistently fell below the emissions cap. Compliance with the program was nearly perfect, and it appears that there was little if any leakage - the displacement of emissions or economic activity - from the OTC region to neighboring areas.

The cost of reducing NOx emissions was also considerably lower than the initial forecasts. Despite short periods of price volatility, regulators did not intervene with a price cap, nor did participating sources seek regulatory relief in court, and the market routinely stabilized. In spite of skeptics' expectations of economic demise, the program had no discernable effect on the region's economic vitality.

In addition to the program's regional accomplishments, the effort facilitated the adoption of broader, national level NOx emissions controls. In 2003, the OTC NOx Budget Program was incorporated into a larger federal system with similar features. The leadership and innovation of the states provided the nascent national system with valuable information and a set of committed stakeholders.

This model of state and regional design leading to federal action may well be the model that moves the U.S. federal government to successfully focus on climate change and GHG emissions.

Working and living in a world with GHG constraints is imminent; no one can deny the "mega trend" towards low-carbon economies. The Kyoto Protocol, ratified by 147 countries including our major trading partners in the both the developed and developing world, is just one step on this path.

Prudent U.S. states and companies have recognized both this reality and the importance of tackling global warming and are looking for methods to effectively reduce GHG emissions. By starting with GHG emission controls on a state level, we can gain experience and produce innovative technologies and strategies which will facilitate broader control on a national scale.

U.S. states can contribute much to national efforts to reduce GHG emissions. Experience by states thus far represents a clear encouragement to proceed. (WRI Features, 700 words)