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WASHINGTON, DC, December 14, 2005 --
Jonathan Lash, President of the World Resources Institute, briefed journalists on environmental trends for 2006. Here are the highlights (PowerPoint here):
CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS:
- Impact of remarkable isolation of US, and increasing perception that the White House and climate skeptics are losing traction, and change in US position will come before end of KP commitment.
- Global opinion, like US opinion, has been influenced by hurricanes, including first-recorded S. Atlantic Hurricane, drought in Brazil, EU heat wave in 04, repeated floods, increase in violent Pacific storms. 2006 events would generate rising anger.
- Increasingly active role of China facing environmental problems at home, and recognizing the costs of aggressive competition for energy supplies.
ENVIRONMENTAL POLITICS IN US:
- Polls show more than 2/3rds of Americans now think climate change is a real and serious problem – people have been strongly influenced by the hurricanes, the Arctic melting, and other weather anomalies.
- In Congress – a new series of climate proposals will be introduced (McCain-Lieberman, Biden-Lugar…).
- Increased activity by states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, similar to Northeast states’ agreement; commitment by Western governors to source 30,000 megawatts of renewable energy.
- U.S. Farm Bill: In addition to debate on agriculture subsidies, watch for debate on subsidies to reduce soil erosion, control water pollution, and cut greenhouse gas emissions.
- Climate debate will become much more visible in 2006. A 2006 storm season similar to that of 2005 will increase the scope of the debate and will make climate a factor in the 2006 mid-term elections.
SCIENCE:
- The flow of scientific studies that confirm the reality of climate change will increase. The year will begin with information on whether 2005 was the hottest or 2nd hottest year in recorded history.
- Key will be this year’s Antarctic observations. Also, important to track additional findings on the changes in ocean currents, the consequences of diminished snowpack, storms, and biological damage.
- Increasing aggressiveness of statements from scientific community who feel that their sense of certainty and urgency has been ignored.
THE AUTO INDUSTRY:
- California has issued stringent performance standards, and NY, ME, VT, MA, RI, CT, NJ, PA and OR have announced they will follow.
- As Ford and GM struggle to avoid bankruptcy and raise the question of Federal intervention, a key issue will be what products they plan for tomorrow’s markets? Will they rely on stylistic modifications or will they incorporate climate-related constraints and rising fuel prices seriously?
China will soon enter the US market with low-cost/ high-mileage cars. How will Ford and GM respond and will US customers buy what they are selling?
- Another key issue to watch will be the growing contest between biofuels (cellulosic ethanol) and hydrogen, a fundamental strategic choice. (Brazil has avoided 574 million metric tonnes (mmt) of CO2 emission and saved over $100 billion with an aggressive biofuels program based on sugar cane.)
INDUSTRY LEADERSHIP:
- Signs of Industry frustration at not knowing what the rules will be. Will industry leaders become involved in explicit discussions of legislation? Will Exxon change direction on climate under new leadership?
- The re-insurance industry: how are they responding, in terms of coverage and premiums, to increase in weather related losses? SwissRe is staking out a leadership position.
ENERGY CHOICES: The Year of Renewables Emerging as an Option
- Price: Global demand for energy has not fallen; oil prices may fluctuate, but from a much higher base then we have known in the past.
- Already rapidly growing renewables sector will accelerate and see the emergence of new technologies. GE Wind has quadrupled its business; major corporations, like GM, IBM and Starbucks making significant purchases of renewable-generated energy.
- New large-scale energy projects – LNG, coal, nuclear – will be debated more than at any time in past 25 years. Security will be one part of the debate, important to watch whether climate plays a part, and whether carbon capture and storage becomes an important option for coal.
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