NEWS RELEASE: New report documents world urbanization trends and impacts

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Paul Mackie, senior media officer, +1(202) 729-7684, pmackie@wri.org

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World Resources 1996-97: The urban environment. (1996 - 400 pages) Urbanization is one of the critical global trends shaping the future. While great environmental challenges lie ahead, there are many innovative and effective approaches to environmental management undertaken by cities and communities around the world. World Resources Institute, United Nations Environment Programme, United Nations Development Programme, and the World Bank.
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WASHINGTON, DC, April 18, 1996 -- A new report from the World Resources Institute, the United Nations Environment Programme, the United Nations Development Programme, and the World Bank finds that urbanization is reshaping the physical and social environment, as it fuels economic growth and spurs environmental degradation.

Urbanization is one of the critical global trends shaping the future, according to World Resources 1996-97. Measuring everything from urban expansion to energy consumption to declining fish stocks, the report uses projections based on scientific studies, scenarios, and quantitative models to document future environmental challenges, including those caused by massive and rapid urbanization. The report identifies some positive trends, but also finds that greater environmental challenges lie ahead unless the human race charts a new course.

"Taken one by one, these trends extending into the future appear manageable. But when you put them all together, they pose a potentially serious hurdle to the aspirations of all nations for a better quality of life and for the preservation of natural resources and environmental assets," said Maurice Strong, chairman of the World Resources Institute Board.

"While some trends are positive, the rate and pace of change, especially in the world's cities, mean that humankind could have more impact on Earth's biological, geological, and chemical systems during our lifetime and our childrens' than all preceding human generations together had," Strong said.

Consider these startling trends and realities:

Future Trend	Current Reality
By 2025, world population is expected to reach 8.3 billion, a 50 percent increase over the present. Africa's population is expected to double, Latin America's to grow nearly 50 percent, and Asia's to grow 40 percent during that period.	Fertility rates in most developing countries are declining, but must fall much further if even the mid-range population growth projection (8.3 billion) is not to be exceeded.
By 2025, 2/3 of the world's people will live in cities.	Only one third of the world's population was urban 35 years ago. More than 150,000 people are being added to urban populations in developing countries every day.
By 2015, the world will have 33 "megacities" with populations over 8 million and more than 500 cities with populations of 1 million or more.	Greater Tokyo already has 27 million people; Sao Paulo, Brazil, 16.4 million; and Bombay, India, 15 million.
In coming decades, most of the world's poor will be urban, living under conditions that can be worse than those of the rural poor.	Between 1970 and 1990, the number of urban poor in Latin America alone increased from 44 to 115 million.
By 2000, the physical size of cities in developing countries is expected to be double what it was in 1980, exerting phenomenal stress on local environments.	More than 40 percent of all cities with a population of 500,000 or more are in tidal estuaries or on the open coast. Half of the world's coastlines and coastal ecosystems are already at risk from development.
By 2020, energy use will increase by 50 to 100 percent. Emissions of greenhouse gases that contribute to the risk of climate change will increase by 45 to 90 percent.	In the past 20 years, global energy use has grown nearly 50 percent. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has concluded that greenhouse gas emissions have led to a "discernible human influence on global climate."
By 2010, the number of motor vehicles could grow to more than 800 million, exacerbating urban air pollution especially in rapidly industrializing countries.	In Bangkok, 300-400 more vehicles are added to traffic jams daily. In the United States, the number of miles driven in motor vehicles climbed 40 percent, largely offsetting increases in vehicle efficiency.
World food production is expected to keep up with population growth, but many people will still go hungry. By 2010, the number of Africans who suffer from malnutrition is expected to increase 70 percent to 300 million.	Nearly one billion people get most of their protein from fish. Overfishing has already depleted more than one-fourth of the world's marine fish stocks.
By 2050, as many as 2.4 billion people could live in countries facing water scarcity. This is nearly 1/5 of the world's projected population.	Withdrawals of fresh water from rivers and lakes have quadrupled in the last 50 years. In 1994, at least 220 million urban dwellers lacked steady access to safe drinking water. Fully 90 percent of sewage in developing countries goes untreated.

World Resources 1996-97 will be an official source book for the United Nations Habitat II Conference slated for June 3-14, 1996, in Istanbul, Turkey. The report highlights many innovative and effective approaches to environmental management undertaken by cities and communities around the world. It identifies lessons from these initiatives for example, if local and national governments, non-governmental organizations, communities, business, international donors, and other external support agencies share responsibility, they have a better chance of solving urban environmental problems.

Cities can serve as centers of employment, growth, and innovation, the report emphasizes. Improving the urban environment and quality of life requires action on a number of fronts including alleviating poverty, creating productive employment, improving resource management, increasing women's participation, and building capacity for urban governance and management. The report offers case studies and examples providing and maintaining urban infrastructure in the low-income settlements; promoting income-generating activities for disadvantaged groups; and upgrading waste management, energy use, and alternative transport systems. These actions are often promoted jointly by UNDP, UNEP, the World Bank, and other partners within and outside the UN system.

World Resources 1996-97 reflects the World Resources Institute's ongoing collaboration with UNEP and UNDP, as well as a new partnership with the World Bank. Published in seven languages, the report is distributed worldwide. The 1996-97 edition -- published 10 years after the first of this series of reports -- contains more than 150 tables, charts, maps, and figures with essential environmental and natural resource data for nearly every country in the world.

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Paul Mackie, senior media officer, +1(202)729-7684, pmackie@wri.org

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